JCI Surges to New Record High, While Rupiah Weakens Ahead of The Fed Decision

Indonesia kicked off the week with a mixed market performance. The equity market celebrated strong gains and hit a fresh all-time high, signaling that optimism remains intact despite global uncertainties. However, contrary to the stock market’s excitement, the foreign exchange market told a different story — the rupiah weakened as investors turned cautious.

With a critical Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting taking place this week, market participants prefer to stay defensive. Volatility is expected to remain elevated in the near term.

JCI Sets New All-Time High

At Monday’s closing:

• JCI gained nearly 1%

• Closed around 8,710 points

• Over 400 stocks advanced

• Trading value reached around IDR 27 trillion

• Market capitalization climbed to approximately IDR 16,000 trillion

This strong performance shows that domestic optimism persists even while global risks are still hovering.

Rupiah Slips Despite Weaker US Dollar

Despite the US Dollar Index declining, the rupiah:

• Closed around IDR 16,685 per US$

• Weakened 0.33%

• Traded between IDR 16,640 – 16,690 per US$

Why did the rupiah fall when the dollar weakened?

➡️ Investors are waiting for The Fed’s clarity
➡️ Foreign outflows from the bond market intensified

Indonesia’s 10-year bond yields rose to around 6.22%, reflecting ongoing selling pressure.

US Market Under Pressure

US equities closed lower as investors positioned ahead of the latest monetary policy decision from The Federal Reserve. The majority of sectors recorded declines, signaling cautious sentiment.

One key question dominates:

Will The Fed truly cut rates at the end of this year?

Market expectations:

• Around 90% probability of a 25 bps rate cut

• New target rate: 3.50% – 3.75%

A dovish stance → potential risk-on rally
A hawkish tone → possible market correction

Positive Catalyst from Asia

Fresh trade data from East Asia brought optimism:

• Exports expanded strongly

• Trade surplus widened significantly

• Continued manufacturing expansion

This development could support trade-reliant economies — including Indonesia — through stronger regional demand.

The Indonesian government continues to strengthen regulations for export earnings to improve liquidity in the domestic US dollar system. The improved monitoring is expected to enhance rupiah stability against external shocks.

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While the Indonesian stock market continues to break new highs, the rupiah’s weakness reminds us that external risks remain significant. The outcome of The Fed’s decision will be the most important market catalyst — potentially fueling further gains or triggering a temporary pause.

Stay sharp, stay informed, and manage risk wisely.

See you in the next update.

Satra Sinar Abadi Group
Empowering Your Business & Strategy

Disclaimer

This article is for educational and informational purposes only and does not constitute investment advice. Market conditions may shift rapidly based on global economic developments.